Will the cycle be unbroken?

At The American Scene, Jim Manzi speculates that we are seeing a liberal realignment in the 2008 election. I agree that a realignment is happening, though I have no idea if it will turn out to be liberal or whether it will happen this year or in 2012. However, it will certainly be Democratic.

What drives the replacement of one political cycle by the next is a widespread visceral fear or disgust; a widely held sense that the party in power has failed beyond redemption. These deep feelings both lead older people to re-think the way they have been voting and permanently shape the generation then coming of age.

• The Republican dominance of 1860-1896 was driven by the Civil War.
• The Republican dominance of 1896-1932 was driven by the Panic of 1893 and the resultant anarchistic marches, riots, and bombings of 1893-94.
• The Democratic dominance of 1932-1968 was driven by the Great Depression.
• The Republican dominance of 1968-now is driven by the riots and social upheaval of the 1960s.

The upcoming Democratic dominance will be based on the utter failure of the Bush administration (if there is a McCain administration, it will only strengthen the eventual dominance). A generation of new voters associates the GOP with recklessness, stupidity and deadly incompetence, and will vote Democratic by a wide margin for the rest of their lives. As soon as that generation begins voting in large enough numbers to outweigh the dying generation shaped by the 1960s, the realignment will happen.

Heckuva job, Karl Rove.